Why East Asian War is Unlikely

The Asia-Pacific region is home to many unresolved geostrategic issues that could escalate into conflict; nevertheless, it is probably more stable than one might believe. In particular, the emergence of a more assertive China does not mean a more aggressive China or that war in Asia is more likely. While Beijing may be increasingly pushing its own agenda in regional international affairs, and while it may seek to displace the United States as the regional hegemon, this does not automatically translate into an expansionist China. If anything, China appears content to press its claims peacefully, if forcefully, through existing avenues and institutions of international relations, and in particular by co-opting these avenues and institutions to meet its own purposes. Secondly, when one looks more closely at the Chinese military buildup, one can still find many deficiencies in its offensive capabilities. The Chinese war machine, while still quite worrisome, may not be quite as threatening as some might argue.