Generation Capacity Expansion Planning Under Hydro Uncertainty Using Stochastic Mixed Integer Programming and Scenario Reduction

Generation capacity expansion planning (GCEP) is the process of deciding on a set of optimal new investments in generation capacity to adequately supply future loads, while satisfying technical and reliability constraints. This paper shows the application of stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP) to account for hydrological uncertainty in GCEP for the Chilean Central Interconnected System, using a two-stage SMIP multi-period model with investments and optimal power flow (OPF). The substantial computational challenges posed by GCEP imply compromising between the detail of the stochastic hydrological variables and the detail of the OPF. We selected a subset of hydrological scenarios to represent the historical hydro variability using moment-based scenario reduction techniques. The tradeoff between modeling accuracy and computational complexity was explored both regarding the simplification of the MIP problem and the differences in the variables of interest. Using a simplified OPF model, we found the difference of using a subset of hydro scenarios to be small when compared with using a full representation of the stochastic variable. Overall, SMIP with scenario reduction provided optimal capacity expansion plans whose investment plus expected operational costs were between 1.3% and 1.9% cheaper than using a deterministic approach and proved to be more robust to hydro variability.