Outcome value and early warning indications as determinants of willingness to learn from experience

In this study of willingness to learn from experience, it was hypothesized that managers would show a negative outcome bias, that is, a stronger tendency to initiate "learning-from-experience" processes after negative outcomes than after positive outcomes. Another aim of the study was to explore the impact of the existence of early warning signals about decision outcomes on the magnitude of the negative outcome bias. Eighty-three managers were asked to read vignettes describing a managerial decision and its outcomes. The outcomes were either positive or negative, and in half of the cases early warning signals existed that made it possible to predict potential negative outcomes while in the other half there were no such signals. The managers were asked to evaluate the need for a learning-from-experience process in general and to rate the degree to which several specific learning processes should be instituted in each of the scenarios. As hypothesized, a negative-outcome bias was found. The more negative the outcomes described, the stronger the managers' inclination to recommend a more intensive learning process. Similarly, a need to ensure control and follow-up procedures was reported mostly after negative outcomes. The existence of early warning signals before the decision was taken did not influence the motivation to learn. Theoretical implications regarding the impact of negative outcomes in general and implications for understanding learning from experience processes in particular are discussed.