Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5

被引:127
作者
Lavers, David A. [1 ]
Ralph, F. Martin [1 ]
Waliser, Duane E. [1 ,2 ]
Gershunov, Alexander [1 ,3 ]
Dettinger, Michael D. [1 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Ctr Western Weather & Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA
[2] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA
[3] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, CASPO, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA
[4] US Geol Survey, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA USA
关键词
water vapor transport; CMIP5; climate change; ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS; MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT; PACIFIC-OCEAN; WEST-COAST; PRECIPITATION; EXTREMES; IMPACTS; WINTER; CALIFORNIA; SATELLITE;
D O I
10.1002/2015GL064672
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Global warming of the Earth's atmosphere is hypothesized to lead to an intensification of the global water cycle. To determine associated hydrological changes, most previous research has used precipitation. This study, however, investigates projected changes to global atmospheric water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)), the key link between water source and sink regions. Using 22 global circulation models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we evaluate, globally, the mean, standard deviation, and the 95th percentiles of IVT from the historical simulations (1979-2005) and two emissions scenarios (2073-2099). Considering the more extreme emissions, multimodel mean IVT increases by 30-40% in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks and in the equatorial Pacific Ocean trade winds. An acceleration of the high-latitude IVT is also shown. Analysis of low-altitude moisture and winds suggests that these changes are mainly due to higher atmospheric water vapor content.
引用
收藏
页码:5617 / 5625
页数:9
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