Evaluating the feasibility of eradicating an invasion

被引:104
作者
Cacho, Oscar J. [1 ]
Spring, Daniel
Pheloung, Paul
Hester, Susan
机构
[1] Univ New England, Sch Econ, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia
[2] Cooperat Res Ctr Australian Weed Management, Glen Osmond, SA, Australia
[3] Monash Univ, Sch Biol Sci, Australian Ctr Biodivers Anal Policy & Management, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia
[4] Australian Govt Dept Agr Fisheries Forestry, Off Chief Plant Protect Off, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
关键词
impedance factors; population simulation model; search and control; search theory; stage matrix; stochastic model; weed control;
D O I
10.1007/s10530-005-4733-9
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 [野生动植物保护与利用];
摘要
The detectability of invasive organisms influences the costs and benefits of alternative control strategies, and the feasibility of eradicating an infestation. Search theory offers a mathematically rigorous framework for defining and measuring detectability taking account of searcher ability, biological factors and the search environment. In this paper, invasive species detectability is incorporated into a population simulation model. The model is applied to a base set of parameter values that represent reasonable values for a hypothetical weed. The analysis shows the effects of detectability and search effort on the duration of an eradication program. For a given level of detectability and search time, the analysis shows that the variables with the greatest influence on the duration of the eradication effort are search speed, kill efficiency, germination rate and seed longevity. Monte Carlo simulations are performed on a set of four weed scenarios, involving different combinations of plant longevity, seed longevity and plant fecundity. Results of these simulations are presented as probability distributions and allow us to calculate how the probability of eradication will be affected by search strategy.
引用
收藏
页码:903 / 917
页数:15
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