Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling of Acute Hematologic Toxicity in Patients Treated With Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy for Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anal Canal

Purpose: To identify dosimetric parameters that correlate with acute hematologic toxicity (HT) in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: We analyzed 33 patients receiving CRT. Pelvic bone (PBM) was contoured for each patient and divided into subsites: ilium, lower pelvis (LP), and lumbosacral spine (LSS). The volume of each region receiving at least 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, and 40 Gy was calculated. Endpoints included grade >= 3 HT (HT3+) and hematologic event (HE), defined as any grade >= 2 HT with a modification in chemotherapy dose. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) was evaluated with the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model. Logistic regression was used to test associations between HT and dosimetric/clinical parameters. Results: Nine patients experienced HT3+ and 15 patients experienced HE. Constrained optimization of the LKB model for HT3+ yielded the parameters m = 0.175, n = 1, and TD50 = 32 Gy. With this model, mean PBM doses of 25 Gy, 27.5 Gy, and 31 Gy result in a 10%, 20%, and 40% risk of HT3+, respectively. Compared with patients with mean PBM dose of <30 Gy, patients with mean PBM dose >= 30 Gy had a 14-fold increase in the odds of developing HT3+ (p = 0.005). Several low-dose radiation parameters (i.e., PBM-V10) were associated with the development of HT3+ and HE. No association was found with the ilium, LP, or clinical factors. Conclusions: LKB modeling confirms the expectation that PBM acts like a parallel organ, implying that the mean dose to the organ is a useful predictor for toxicity. Low-dose radiation to the PBM was also associated with clinically significant HT. Keeping the mean PBM dose <22.5 Gy and <25 Gy is associated with a 5% and 10% risk of HT, respectively. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc.