Detecting potential regional effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on growth rates of western juniper

Evidence of an atmospheric CO2 fertilization effect on radial growth rates was uncovered by examining climate-growth relationships for seven western juniper tree-ring chronologies in central Oregon using multiple regression models. Consistent upward trends of the residuals from dendroclimatic models indicated a decreased ability for climate parameters to predict growth with time. Additionally, an assessment was made of whether enhanced growth was detectable under drought conditions, because a major benefit of elevated atmospheric CO2 is the reduction of water stress. Mean ring indices were compared between ecologically comparable drought years, when atmospheric CO2 was lower (1896-1949), and more recent drought years that occurred under higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations (1950-96/98). The results presented herein show that: (i) residuals from climate/growth models had a significant positive trend at six of seven sites, suggesting the presence of a nonclimatic factor causing increased growth during recent decades; (ii) overall growth was 23% greater in the latter half of the 20th century; (iii) growth indices during matched drought and matched wet years were 63% and 30% greater, respectively, in the later 20th century than the earlier 20th century; and (iv) harsher sites had greater responses during drought periods between early and late periods. While it is not possible to rule out other factors, these results are consistent with expectations for CO2 fertilization effects.