Diminutive Frontal Waves-A Link between Fronts and Cyclones

A number of recent publications have dealt with cyclone identification and tracking. Following on, this paper extends the typical cyclone life cycle back in time to embrace a new feature called a "diminutive frontal wave." One aim is to improve predictability by extending tracks. This is particularly important for small, cyclonic windstorms, which can often be missed in postprocessed output from operational, ensemble, and climate runs. The recognition of diminutive waves requires a new, front-relative, low-level vorticity partition. The parts are labeled "frontal vorticity" and "disturbance vorticity" and are computed, respectively, from front-parallel and cross-front low-level wind components. A diminutive frontal wave then lies wherever there is a local, along-front maximum in the disturbance vorticity. Computations require local coordinates; these are conveniently provided, at all grid points, by objective front diagnostics. Analysis of cyclone-type transitions over the North Atlantic in operational numerical model data confirms the validity of adding the diminutive wave stage to the revised cyclone life cycle. Examples then suggest that nonmodal growth of diminutive waves can occur, albeit with a sometimes complex interplay between separate cyclonic features. In all cases, model resolution is necessarily higher than the 100-500 km typically used in previous work.