Biased mutations and microsatellite variation

Mutation bias is one of the forces that may constrain the variation at microsatellite loci. Here, we study the dynamics of population statistics and the genetic distance between two populations under multiple stepwise mutations with linear bias and random drift. Expressions are derived for these statistics as functions of time, as well as at mutation-drift equilibrium. Applying these expressions to published data on humans and chimpanzees, the regression coefficient of mutation bias on allele size was estimated to be at least between -0.0064 and -0.013. The assumption of mutational bias produces larger estimates of divergence times than are obtained in its absence; in particular, the time of split between African and non-African human populations is estimated to be between 183,000 and 222,000 years, assuming one-step mutations and no selection. With multistep mutations, the divergence time is estimated to be lower.