The Role of NAFTA and Returns to Scale in Export Duration

While exports within NAFTA face a lower hazard of ceasing, its onset has increased the hazard for Mexican and US intra NAFTA exports. Intra NAFTA exports still enjoy a lower hazard relative to exports to non-members. While NAFTA did affect the hazard for Canada's exports in the short run, its effect on Mexican and US exports is persistent. Exports of increasing-returns-to-scale (IRS) manufacturing products face the highest hazard in the case of Canada and Mexico, while IRS natural resource products have the highest hazard for Mexico. The effect of NAFTA on the returns to scale product types is exporter specific. (JEL codes: F10, F14).