A spreadsheet method for calculating work completion time probability distributions of paced or linked assembly lines

This study presents a spreadsheet method for computing the work completion time probability distribution of a linked assembly line with variable station service times. Once developed, this distribution can be used to analyse the probability of completing all work at all stations within a given cycle time on either a linked or mechanically paced assembly line. The method can be used to determine what cycle time to set on a paced line, given a desired workload at each station. Alternately, given a desired cycle time and probability that all work has been completed at each station within the cycle time, the method can be used to determine how much work to allocate to each station on the paced line. The method is simple, easy to use, and works with any continuous or discrete station service time distribution that can be specified in a spreadsheet. Comparisons between the output of the spreadsheet method and simulations of the same system indicate the spreadsheet method is quite accurate. Hence, the method can be useful to both researchers and practitioners working with the design and/or behaviour of linked or paced lines, and it provides an easy-to-use teaching tool for illustrating characteristics of linked or paced assembly lines.