Robust dynamic classes revealed by measuring the response function of a social system

被引:470
作者
Crane, Riley [1 ]
Sornette, Didier [1 ]
机构
[1] Eidgenoss TH Zurich, Dept Management Technol & Econ, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland
关键词
complex systems; human dynamics;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.0803685105
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We study the relaxation response of a social system after endogenous and exogenous bursts of activity using the time series of daily views for nearly 5 million videos on You Tube. We find that most activity can be described accurately as a Poisson process. However, we also find hundreds of thousands of examples in which a burst of activity is followed by an ubiquitous power-law relaxation governing the timing of views. We find that these relaxation exponents cluster into three distinct classes and allow for the classification of collective human dynamics. This is consistent with an epidemic model on a social network containing two ingredients: a power-law distribution of waiting times between cause and action and an epidemic cascade of actions becoming the cause of future actions. This model is a conceptual extension of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem to social systems [Ruelle, D (2004) Phys Today 57:48-53] and [Roehner BM, et al., (2004) Int J Mod Phys C 15:809-834], and provides a unique framework for the investigation of timing in complex systems.
引用
收藏
页码:15649 / 15653
页数:5
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