Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network

被引:582
作者
Khakzad, Nima [1 ]
Khan, Faisal [1 ]
Amyotte, Paul [2 ]
机构
[1] Mem Univ Newfoundland, Fac Engn & Appl Sci, St John, NF A1B 3X5, Canada
[2] Dalhousie Univ, Dept Proc Engn & Appl Sci, Halifax, NS B3J 2X4, Canada
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
Dynamic safety analysis; Bow-tie approach; Bayesian network; Probability adapting; REFERENCE ACCIDENT SCENARIOS; FAULT-TREES; IDENTIFICATION; RELIABILITY; METHODOLOGY;
D O I
10.1016/j.psep.2012.01.005
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
083001 [环境科学];
摘要
Among the various techniques used for safety analysis of process systems, bow-tie (BT) analysis is becoming a popular technique as it represents an accident scenario from causes to effects. However, the BT application in the dynamic safety analysis is limited due to the static nature of its components, i.e. fault tree and event tree. It is therefore difficult in BT to take accident precursors into account to update the probability of events and the consequent risk. Also, BT is unable to represent conditional dependency. Event dependency is common among primary events and safety barriers. The current paper illustrates how Bayesian network (BN) helps to overcome these limitations. It has also been shown that BN can be used in dynamic safety analysis of a wide range of accident scenarios due to its flexible structure. This paper also introduces the application of probability adapting in dynamic safety analysis rather than probability updating. A case study from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board has been used to illustrate the application of both BT and BN techniques, with a comparison of the results from each technique. (c) 2012 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:46 / 53
页数:8
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