Climate change and avian influenza

This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (Al viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the Al virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that Al virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed.