The interrelations of weather, plant production and abundance, and elk population dynamics on Yellowstone's northern winter range were examined for a 23-yr period when there was minimal human offtake from the herd. Significant correlations between precipitation and plant production, between elk population responses and precipitation, and between elk population responses and elk population density strongly suggested that forage limited elk population growth. Although population responses to density have been documented previously in Yellowstone, responses to precipitation have not. Correlations between elk population responses and annual precipitation were presumably consequences of plant growth responses to precipitation and subsequent effects on elk nutritional status. Population regulation was most consistently achieved through the responses of juveniles rather than adults. Winter mortality of juveniles was primarily correlated with elk numbers, whereas recruitment was primarily correlated with precipitation. Adult mortality rates were not significantly correlated with elk numbers, but were correlated with precipitation. Per capita rate of increase was negatively correlated with elk number, but 55% of the variance was density-independent. There was evidence that winter weather affected the elk, but season-long weather indices had poor predictive power. A stage-structured population model using regression equations of mortality and recruitment rate responses to precipitation and elk numbers, predicted that the population could vary within a range of approximate to 16 400 +/- 2500 sighted elk (mean +/- 1 SD).
