Simulation studies on the epidemiological impact of national identification and recording systems on the control of classical swine fever in Belgium

A state-transition simulation model was used to study the impact of four different national identification and recording (I&R) systems on the control of classical swine fever (CSF) in Belgium: (1) the system currently used in Belgium; (2) a revised system which is about to be introduced in Belgium; (3) a system based on electronic identification; (4) a system similar to (3) but extended with electronic monitoring. The simulation model and the modelling approach are described in this paper. The main conclusions of the simulation studies were: (1) using the current I&R system, only strategies that include pre-emptive removal succeed in eradication of CSF in high-density regions; (2) the CSF control can be remarkably improved in high- and medium-density regions using the revised I&R system, hence introduction is justifiable on the grounds of CSF control; (3) more sophisticated electronic I&R systems can help to reduce the impact of CSF further, especially in high-density regions; (4) the CSF control strategy applied influences the effect of I&R system improvement; (5) critical aspects in CSF control are the tracing of carrier herds and the reduction of the so-called pre-period of the epidemic.