A model of survival times for predator populations: The case of the army ants

We develop a method to estimate the expected time of survival of a predator population as a function of the size of the habitat island on which it lives and the dynamic parameters of the population and its prey. The model may be thought of either as a patch occupancy model for a structured population or as a model of metapopulation type. The method is applied to a keystone predator species, the neotropical army ant Eciton burchelli. Predictions are made as to how many of the islands and habitat islands in and around Gatun Lake in the Panama Canal, most of which were formed when the canal was dug, can be expected to support such a population today, and these are compared with data. (C) 1999 Society for Mathematical Biology.