A successfully stress-forecast earthquake

被引：119

作者：

Crampin, S

Volti, T

Stefánsson, R

机构：

[1] Univ Edinburgh, Grant Inst Geol, Dept Geol & Geophys, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Midlothian, Scotland

[2] Natl Civil Def Comm Ireland, IS-150 Reykjavik, Iceland

[3] Iceland Meteorol Off, IS-150 Reykjavik, Iceland

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL | 1999年 / 138卷 / 01期

关键词：

fracture criticality; shear wave splitting; stress forecasting;

D O I：

10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00891.x

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

A M = 5 earthquake in Iceland has been successfully 'stress forecast' by using variations in time delays of seismic shear wave splitting to assess the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. Local investigations suggested the approximate location of the forecast earthquake. We report the criteria on which this stress forecast was based.

引用

页码：F1 / F5

页数：5

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