Risk assessment and outpatient management in bleeding peptic ulcer

Aims: 1) To review clinical and endoscopic variables in patients hospitalized for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) due to peptic gastroduodenal lesions over a period of 3 years; 2) to identify factors associated with unfavorable evolution; and 3) to evaluate characteristics of patients discharged immediately after endoscopy. Methods: A 3-year retrospective analysis of all UGIB episodes was performed. Patients with gastroduodenal ulcer or erosive gastritis/duodenitis at endoscopy were included. The prognostic value of several clinical, endoscopic, and analytical variables was assessed. Persistence or recurrence of bleeding, surgery, and mortality were considered as outcome variables (evolution was classified as "unfavorable" when any of these was observed). Results: A total of 341 patients were identified, with a mean age of 62 years. Melena was the most frequent UGIB presentation (70%). Forty-five percent had associated diseases, and 45% were taking gastroerosive drugs. Duodenal ulcer was the most frequent cause of UGIB (48%), followed by gastric ulcer (32%). The evolution of UGIB was unfavorable in 7% of cases. Variables associated with unfavorable evolution in the multivariate analysis were: systolic blood pressure <= 100 mm Hg, heart rate >= 100 bpm, and a Forrest endoscopic classification of severe. Only 10% of patients were immediately discharged, with no subsequent complications. However, if predictive variables obtained in the multivariate analysis had been used, hospitalization could have been prevented in 115 patients (34%) without subsequent complications. Conclusions: A number of clinical and endoscopic variables (blood pressure, heart rate, and endoscopic stigmata of bleeding) with prognostic value have been identified. These are easy to obtain and apply in clinical practice and allow an accurate estimation of the evolution of UGIB. This diagnostic strategy identifies a relatively high proportion of UGIB patients who can be managed on an Outpatient basis.