Self-organized complexity in economics and finance

被引:63
作者
Stanley, HE [1 ]
Amaral, LAN
Buldyrev, SV
Gopikrishnan, P
Plerou, V
Salinger, MA
机构
[1] Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
[2] Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
[3] Boston Univ, Sch Management, Dept Finance & Econ, Boston, MA 02215 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1073/pnas.022582899
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
This article discusses some of the similarities between work being done by economists and by physicists seeking to contribute to economics. We also mention some of the differences in the approaches taken and seek to justify these different approaches by developing the argument that by approaching the same problem from different points of view, new results might emerge. in particular, we review two newly discovered scaling results that appear to be universal, in the sense that they hold for widely different economies as well as for different time periods: (i) the fluctuation of price changes of any stock market is characterized by a probability density function, which is a simple power law with exponent -4 extending over 10(2) SDs (a factor of 10(8) on the y axis); this result is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter power law describing the histogram of earthquakes of a given strength; and (ii) for a wide range of economic organizations, the histogram shows how size of organization is inversely correlated to fluctuations in size with an exponent approximate to0.2. Neither of these two new empirical laws has a firm theoretical foundation. We also discuss results that are reminiscent of phase transitions in spin systems, where the divergent behavior of the response function at the critical point (zero magnetic field) leads to large fluctuations.
引用
收藏
页码:2561 / 2565
页数:5
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