Lake ice growth and decay in central Alaska, USA: observations and computer simulations compared

The Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo), a one-dimensional, thermodynamic model with unsteady heat conduction and penetrating solar radiation, is used to simulate ice growth and decay on shallow ponds in and near Fairbanks, central Alaska, USA. Simulations are compared with observations of ice thickness and composition (snow ice, congelation ice), freeze-up, break-up and duration. Simulations run using US National Weather Service meteorological data as input variables do not agree well with ice-thickness measurements. The simulations improve significantly when the model is run with more representative, locally measured data for air temperature and depth of snow on the ice. The causes of some discrepancies between simulations and observations are discussed and some suggestions for model improvements are made.