Development of radiological knee osteoarthritis in patients with knee complaints

Objectives It is currently impossible to identify which patients with knee complaints presenting to the general practitioner will develop knee osteoarthritis (OA) pathology at a later stage. This study examines the determinants for developing OA pathology on x-ray in patients with knee complaints but no radiological OA at baseline in the painful knee. Methods Data from the prospective Rotterdam cohort study (including subjects aged >= 55 years) were used. Analysis was performed on 623 subjects with knee complaints at baseline and their data at 6-year follow-up (T1; n=607) and at 11-year follow-up (T2; n=457). At baseline, none had radiological OA (rOA=Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) grade >= 2) in the painful joint. At follow-up, predictors for rOA were determined using multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis. Results At T1, 8.5% of the group had developed knee rOA and, by T2, this had increased to 23%. Determinants remaining significant in the multivariate analysis were female gender (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.36), other joint complaints (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.12 to 4.35) and KL grade 1 at baseline in the painful knee joint (OR 7.14, 95% CI 4.55 to 11.1). All outcomes are adjusted for all included determinants. Conclusion The best predictors of development of knee rOA are a combination of female gender, other joint complaints and KL grade 1 in the painful joint. KL grade 1 in combination with knee pain should be considered as early OA in patient management.