Estimating population-based incidence and prevalence of major coronary events

Background Population-based data on coronary events are generally lacking for large areas, such as at the nation-wide level. While mortality data are currently and exhaustively collected in all developed countries and in a few developing countries, incidence and prevalence are often available only for certain subgroups of the population under study. Methods We propose to estimate population-based incidence and prevalence of coronary events through a mathematical method using mortality and survival data as input, and to forecast coronary event occurrence using an age, period and cohort approach. The method reconstructs incidence and prevalence of major coronary events in Italy from 1970 to 1997 and projects trends up to the year 2007 using survival data on coronary events from the Area Friuli-MONICA (MONItoring of CArdiovascular diseases) register. Results Major coronary event incidence has been decreasing since 1977 for men and since 1974, for women. Conversely, major coronary event prevalence increased up to the end of the 1980s for men and up to the early 1980s for women, and it has been declining thereafter. Major coronary event prevalence results from three main effects: increasing survival, population ageing, and incidence trend. Conclusions Availability of national population data, collection of population-based survival data from the MONICA registers and appropriate statistical and mathematical methods help to estimate and project incidence and prevalence trends for major coronary events. This information is essential to plan and implement actions aimed at improving medical care services, and to evaluate the impact of public health interventions as well as spontaneously changing habits.