Air pollution and mortality: The implications of uncertainties in regression modeling and exposure measurement

In a previous paper,(1) we showed that the mean effects on daily mortality associated with air pollution are essentially the same for gases and particulate matter (PM) and are invariant with respect to particle size and composition, based on 27 statistical studies that had been published at that time. Since then, a new analysis(2) reported stronger mortality associations for the fine fractions of PM obtained from dichotomous samplers, relative to the coarse fractions. In this paper, we show that differential measurement errors known to be present in dichotomous sampler data preclude reliable determination of such statistical relationships by particle size. Further, it is necessary to consider gaseous pollutants simultaneously with particles to provide robust estimates of the responsibilities for the implied daily mortality gradients. Finally, certain regression model specifications may be sensitive to differences in frequency distribution characteristics according to particle size.