Geographic prediction of human onset of West Nile virus using dead crow clusters: An evaluation of year 2002 data in New York State

被引:45
作者
Johnson, GD
Eidson, M
Schmit, K
Ellis, A
Kulldorff, M
机构
[1] New York State Dept Hlth, Zoonoses Program, Albany, NY 12237 USA
[2] SUNY Albany, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA
[3] SUNY Albany, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Albany, NY 12222 USA
[4] Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Dept Ambulatory Care & Prevent, Boston, MA USA
[5] Harvard Pilgrim Hlth Care, Boston, MA USA
关键词
arboviruses; geographic information systems; Poisson distribution; population surveillance; proportional hazards models; space-time clustering; West Nile virus; zoonoses;
D O I
10.1093/aje/kwj023
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
The risk of becoming a West Nile virus case in New York State, excluding New York City, was evaluated for persons whose town of residence was proximal to spatial clusters of dead American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos). Weekly clusters were delineated for June-October 2002 by using both the binomial spatial scan statistic and kernel density smoothing. The relative risk of a human case was estimated for different spatial-temporal exposure definitions after adjusting for population density and age distribution using Poisson regression, adjusting for week and geographic region, and conducting Cox proportional hazards modeling, where the week that a human case was identified was treated as the failure time and baseline hazard was stratified by region. The risk of becoming a West Nile virus case was positively associated with living in towns proximal to dead crow clusters. The highest risk was consistently for towns associated with a cluster in the current or prior 1-2 weeks. Weaker, but positive associations were found for towns associated with a cluster in just the 1-2 prior weeks, indicating an ability to predict onset in a timely fashion.
引用
收藏
页码:171 / 180
页数:10
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