How to make sense of the common prior assumption under incomplete information

被引:27
作者
Bonanno, G [1 ]
Nehring, K [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Econ, Davis, CA 95616 USA
关键词
common prior; Harsanyi consistency; common belief; truth axiom;
D O I
10.1007/s001820050117
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 [经济学];
摘要
Recent contributions have questioned the meaningfulness of the Common Prior Assumption (CPA) in situations of incomplete information. We characterize the CPA in terms of the primitives (individuals' belief hierarchies) without reference to an ex ante stage. The key is to rule out "agreeing to disagree" about any aspect of beliefs. Our results also yield a generalization of single-person Bayesian updating to situations without perfect recall. The entire analysis is carried out locally at the "true state", using beliefs only, rather than beliefs-plus-knowledge. We discuss the role of truth assumptions on beliefs for a satisfactory notion of the CPA, and point out an important conceptual discontinuity between the case of two and many individuals.
引用
收藏
页码:409 / 434
页数:26
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