Using genetic markers to directly estimate gene flow and reproductive success parameters in plants on the basis of naturally regenerated seedlings

Estimating seed and pollen gene flow in plants on the basis of samples of naturally regenerated seedlings can provide much needed information about "realized gene flow," but seems to be one of the greatest challenges in plant population biology. Traditional parentage methods, because of their inability to discriminate between male and female parentage of seedlings, unless supported by uniparentally inherited markers, are not capable of precisely describing seed and pollen aspects of gene flow realized in seedlings. Here, we describe a maximum-likelihood method for modeling female and male parentage in a local plant population on the basis of genotypic data from naturally established seedlings and when the location and genotypes of all potential parents within the population are known. The method models female and male reproductive success of individuals as a function of factors likely to influence reproductive success (e.g., distance of seed dispersal, distance between mates, and relative fecundity-i.e., female and male selection gradients). The method is designed to account for levels of seed and pollen gene flow into the local population from unsampled adults; therefore, it is well suited to isolated, but also wide-spread natural populations, where extensive seed and pollen dispersal complicates traditional parentage analyses. Computer simulations were performed to evaluate the utility and robustness of the model and estimation procedure and to assess how the exclusion power of genetic markers (isozymes or microsatellites) affects the accuracy of the parameter estimation. In addition, the method was applied to genotypic data collected in Scots pine (isoyymes) and oak (microsatellites) populations to obtain preliminary estimates of long-distance seed and pollen gene flow and the patterns of local seed and pollen dispersal in these species.