Development of decision support products based on ensemble forecasts in the European flood alert system

被引：51

作者：

Ramos, Maria-Helena ^{[1
,2
]}

Bartholmes, Jens ^{[2
]}

Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Irstea, Hydrol & Hydraul Res Unit, Lyon, France

[2] Commiss European Communities, DG Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Ispra, Italy

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2007年 / 8卷 / 04期

关键词：

flood forecasting; ensemble prediction; uncertainty; warning;

D O I：

10.1002/asl.161

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

The study presents the development of flood warning decision support products based on ensemble forecasts in the European Flood Alert System (EFAS). EFAS aims to extend the lead time of flood forecasts to 3-10 days in transnational river basins and complement Member States' activities on flood forecasting. Weather forecasts are used as input to a hydrological model and simulated discharges are evaluated for exceedances of flood thresholds. Products were developed in collaboration with users for a concise and useful visualization of probabilistic results. Forecasts of flood events observed in the Danube river basin in 2005 illustrate the analysis. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

引用

页码：113 / 119

页数：7

共 23 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 35 EEA

[2]

[Anonymous], 2003, Intl. J. River Basin Management, DOI DOI 10.1080/15715124.2003.9635192

[3] Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems [J].

Atger, F .

NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS, 2001, 8 (06) :401-417

[4]

Bartholmes J, 2005, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V9, P333

[5]

BUIZZA R, 2001, ECMWF NEWSLETTER, V90, P2

[6] Intercomparison of lumped versus distributed hydrologic model ensemble simulations on operational forecast scales [J].

Carpenter, Theresa M. ;

Georgakakos, Konstantine P. .

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2006, 329 (1-2) :174-185

[7]

DEROO A, 2000, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESS, V4, P1981

[8]

Diomede T., 2006, ADV GEOSCIENCES, V7, P189, DOI [10.5194/adgeo-7-189-2006, DOI 10.5194/ADGE0-7-189-2006]

[9] Towards the characterization of streamflow simulation uncertainty through multimodel ensembles [J].

Georgakakos, KP ;

Seo, DJ ;

Gupta, H ;

Schaake, J ;

Butts, MB .

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2004, 298 (1-4) :222-241

[10] A method for identifying sources of model uncertainty in rainfall-runoff simulations [J].

Gourley, Jonathan J. ;

Vieux, Baxter E. .

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2006, 327 (1-2) :68-80

← 1 2 3 →