Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?

被引：36

作者：

Clements, Michael P. ^{[1
]}

Krolzig, Hans-Martin ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Warwick, Dept Econ, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Dept Econ, Oxford OX1 3UQ, England

来源：

EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS | 2002年 / 27卷 / 02期

关键词：

Oil prices; Business cycle asymmetries; Markov-switching models;

D O I：

10.1007/s001810100114

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions.

引用

页码：185 / 204

页数：20

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