Heterosexual HIV-1 Infectiousness and Antiretroviral Use Systematic Review of Prospective Studies of Discordant Couples

Background: Recent studies have estimated the reduction in HIV-1 infectiousness with antiretroviral therapy (ART), but high-quality studies such as randomized controlled trials, accompanied by rigorous adherence counseling, are likely to overestimate the effectiveness of treatment-as-prevention in real-life settings. Methods: We attempted to summarize the effect of ART on HIV transmission by undertaking a systematic review and meta-analysis of HIV-1 infectiousness per heterosexual partnership (incidence rate and cumulative incidence over study follow-up) estimated from prospective studies of discordant couples. We used random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates. When possible, the analyses were further stratified by direction of transmission (man-to-woman or woman-to-man) and economic setting (high-or low-income countries). Potential causes of heterogeneity of estimates were explored through subgroup analyses. Results: Fifty publications were included. Nine allowed comparison between ART and non-ART users within studies (ART-stratified studies), in which summary incidence rates were 3.6/100 personyears (95% confidence interval = 2.0-6.5) and 0.2/100 person-years (0.07-0.7) for non-ART-and ART-using couples, respectively (P < 0.001), constituting a 91% (79-96%) reduction in per-partner HIV-1 incidence rate with ART use. The 41 studies that did not stratify by ART use provided estimates with high levels of heterogeneity (I-2 statistic) and few reported levels of ART use, making interpretation difficult. Nevertheless, estimates tended to be lower with ART use. Infectiousness tended to be higher for low-income than high-income settings, but there was no clear pattern by direction of transmission (man-to-woman and woman-to-man). Conclusions: ART substantially reduces HIV-1 infectiousness within discordant couples, based on observational studies, and could play a major part in HIV-1 prevention efforts. However, the non-zero risk from partners receiving ART demonstrates that appropriate counseling and other risk-reduction strategies for discordant couples are still required. Additional estimates of ART effectiveness by adherence level from real-life settings will be important, especially for persons starting treatment early without symptoms. (Epidemiology 2013;24: 110-121)