The next generation of NWP: explicit forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

被引：380

作者：

Done, James ^{[2
]}

Davis, Christopher A. ^{[1
]}

Weisman, Morris ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[2] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2004年 / 5卷 / 06期

关键词：

mesoscale; WRF model; model resolution; mesoscale convective system; forecast verification;

D O I：

10.1002/asl.72

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

The performance of daily convection forecasts from 13 May to 9 July 2003 using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is investigated. Although forecasts using 10-km grid spacing and parameterized convection are not lacking in prediction of convective rainfall, fully explicit forecasts with a 4-km grid spacing more often predict identifiable mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that correspond to observed systems in time and space. Furthermore, the explicit forecasts more accurately predict the number of MCSs daily and type of organization (termed convective system mode). The explicit treatment of convection in NWP does not necessarily provide a better point specific-forecast, but rather a more accurate depiction of the physics of convective systems. Copyright. (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

引用

页码：110 / 117

页数：8

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