Expected EPS and EPS growth as determinants of value

被引:653
作者
Ohlson, JA [1 ]
Juettner-Nauroth, BE
机构
[1] Arizona State Univ, WP Carey Sch Business, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
[2] Univ Mainz, Chair Banking, D-55099 Mainz, Germany
关键词
equity valuation; EPS; EPS growth; dividend policy;
D O I
10.1007/s11142-005-1535-3
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
This paper develops a parsimonious model relating a firm's price per share to, (i), next year expected earnings per share (or 12 months forward eps), (ii), short-term growth (FY-2 versus FY-1) in eps, (iii), long-term (asymptotic) growth in eps, and, (iv), cost-of-equity capital. The model assumes that the present value of dividends per share (dps) determines price, but it does not restrict how the dps-sequence is expected to evolve. All of these aspects of the model contrast sharply with the standard (Gordon/Williams) text-book approach, which equates the growth rates of expected eps and dps and fixes the growth rate and the payout rate. Though the constant growth model arises as a peculiar special case, the analysis in this paper rests on more general principles, including dividend policy irrelevancy. A second key result inverts the valuation formula to show how one expresses cost-of-capital as a function of the forward eps to price ratio and the two measures of growth in expected eps. This expression generalizes the text-book equation in which cost-of-capital equals the dps-yield plus the growth in expected eps.
引用
收藏
页码:349 / 365
页数:17
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