Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable

For over 30 years, East Asia has been free of major wars. But East Asia's stable order is based on a unique and remarkable triangular relationship among the region's three biggest powers, and that relationship is now under pressure from China's growth. Asia's future peace will depend on the ability of the United States, China and Japan - and eventually India - to create a new regional order which reflects the emerging economic and power relativities of the Asian Century. Creating a stable new order will require major sacrifices from all three powers: America will have to concede primacy and learn to treat China and Japan as equals; China will have to forgo its own dreams of primacy and accept Japan as a legitimate major power; and Japan will have to accept the costs and complexities of strategic independence. We cannot assume they will meet these challenges successfully.