A maximum likelihood method for estimates of the statistics of the crack growth behavior

The prediction of stochastic crack growth accumulation is important for the reliability analysis of structures as well as the scheduling of inspection and repair/replacement maintenance. Based on a maximum likelihood method and a second moment approximation, a simple stochastic crack growth analysis method is presented for practical applications. The crack growth rate is considered a random variable. A deterministic differential equation is used for the crack growth rate, while it is assumed that parameters in this equation are random variables. The analysis method can be implemented easily in practical engineering applications and for estimates of the statistics of the crack growth behavior. The flexibility and accuracy of the method presented are demonstrated using numerical analysis results and experimental data. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.