Visualizing the log-periodic pattern before crashes

被引：48

作者：

Vandewalle, N ^{[1
]}

Ausloos, M

Boveroux, P

Minguet, A

机构：

[1] Univ Liege, Inst Phys B5, B-4000 Liege, Belgium

[2] Univ Liege, Fac Econ Gest & Sci Sociales, B-4000 Liege, Belgium

来源：

EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL B | 1999年 / 9卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1007/s100510050775

中图分类号：

O469 [凝聚态物理学];

学科分类号：

070205 ;

摘要：

We present a method for visualizing the pattern which we believe to be a precursor signature of financial crashes (or ruptures). The log-periodicity of the pattern is investigated through the envelope function technique. Three periods of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are investigated: 1982-1987, 1992-1997 and 1993-1998. The presence of a rupture in the end of 1998 is outlined from data taken before the end of August 1998.

引用

页码：355 / 359

页数：5

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