The economic impact of a transient hazard on property values: The 1988 PEPCON explosion in Henderson, Nevada

This article investigates the effect of the May 1988 explosion of a chemical plant in Henderson, Nevada on residential property values (1) before the explosion (anticipation), (2) between the time of the explosion and an announcement of relocation, and (3) subsequent to an announcement in July 1988 that the plant would be rebuilt 100 miles away in Cedar City, Utah. This article uses the conventional hedonic model wherein the real prices of residential houses are related to the characteristics of the property (age, size, and amenities); the timing of the sale; and distance from the site of the explosion, rounded to the nearest mile. A quadratic specification of the model showed that the model was sensitive to the mean distance from the hazard. In a sample of properties throughout the Las Vegas Valley, property values decreased with distance from the explosion, indicating the presence of other hazards. The quadratic specification was stable only for properties within six miles of the explosion site, which included the communities of old Henderson (to the east) and the master planned community of Green Valley (to the west). A discontinuous specification of the model, in which distance was measured by a set of dummy variables (i.e., within two miles, within three miles, etc.) proved to be much more stable. Property within two miles of the hazard were depressed both before and after the explosion, although after the relocation announcement, property values rebounded to reflect the reduction in the number of hazardous plants. This article lends weight to the accumulating body of evidence that real estate markets do behave efficiently.