Towards modelling of construction, renovation and demolition activities:: Norway's dwelling stock, 1900-2100

The activities of construction, renovation and demolition related to the dwelling (housing) stock have a strong impact on both material and energy demands. A deeper understanding of the dynamics driving these activities is a precondition for a more consistent way to address material and energy demands. The method presented herein is based on a dynamic material flow analysis and is applied to the Norwegian dwelling stock. Input data to the model are population and socio-economic lifestyle indicators such as the average number of persons per dwelling and the average size of dwellings; these determine the size of the floor area stock. Parameters such as the lifetime of dwellings and renovation intervals complete the input set. Outputs of the model are the stock and flows of floor area for the period 1900-2100. Analysis of the renovation activity is given particular attention. Several scenarios are considered in order to test the model's sensitivity to input's uncertainties. Results are compared with statistical data, where the latter are available. The main conclusion is that in the coming decades renovation is likely to overtake construction as the major activity in the Norwegian residential sector.