Predicting patient nonappearance for surgery as a scheduling strategy to optimize operating room utilization in a veterans' administration hospital

Background: Previous attempts at improving operating room utilization have generally emphasized more accurate scheduling, starting the first case on time, and reducing turnover time. Surgical case cancellations have largely been ignored except for recommendations for preoperative screening and good physician-patient communication to improve patient compliance. Methods: A retrospective review of operating room records was initially used to identify reasons for surgical cancellations. This was followed by a retrospective stratified case-control study of patient records to identify preexisting factors that predict the failure of patients to appear for surgical procedures as scheduled. Factors assessed included demographics, type of surgical procedure, compliance with previous healthcare visits, substance abuse, mental illness, travel distance, and neurologic problems. Results: The authors reviewed their operating room utilization and found patient nonappearance rates to be a substantial source of surgical cancellations. Furthermore, multivariate analysis demonstrated that patient nonappearance could be strongly predicted from patient noncompliance with clinic visits and other clinical procedures without reference to the other variables assessed. Further analysis of data from an independent sample of patients confirmed this observation. Conclusions: Noncompliance with hospital visits for surgical procedures can be predicted from noncompliance with other healthcare encounters. Surgical procedures for previously noncompliant patients should be booked at the end of the operating room day, when the cancellation is least likely to interfere with operating room flow.