Vulnerability assessment of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes in future climate change scenarios

Using the definition of vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this paper assesses the vulnerability of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes from 2001 to 2020 and from 2001 to 2050 in A1 and B1scenarios. Seven indices are used in the vulnerability assessment: glacial area fraction, interannual variability of permafrost depth, interannual variability of surface snow area fraction, interannual variability of surface runoff, interannual variability of surface temperature, interannual variability of vegetation growth, and interannual variability of the human development index. Assessment results show that the overall vulnerability of the studied areas in China increases from east to west. The areas in the middle and eastern parts of China are less vulnerable compared with western parts and parts of the Tibetan Plateau. The highest vulnerability values are found from 1981 to 2000, and the least ones are found from 2001 to 2050. The vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2050, and the less vulnerable areas decrease. The highly vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2020 and then decrease from the period of 2001 to 2020 to the period of 2001 to 2050. This decrease in vulnerability is attributed to the decrease in exposure and sensitivity to Chinese cryospheric changes along with a concomitant increase in adaptation.