European integration and the spatial dynamics of manufacturing-employment change

The author examines the dynamics of manufacturing-employment change in thirteen European Union countries between 1978 and 1996, mainly through the utilisation of shift-share techniques. Despite the momentum that European integration gained over this period, the key finding is that the geography of manufacturing employment has remained almost intact. Processes operating at the European scale appear to have the largest impact on labour outcomes in each member state, while there is little deviation from the widespread declining trends. Spatial stability is reinforced even further through the homogeneity of several national industrial structures. In addition, the moderate increase in the industrial specialisation of the participating economies, and the localisation tendencies of a few traditional subsectors, pose little if any threat to the stability of the present map of manufacturing distribution. This evidence suggests that, contrary to some political rhetoric, the integration process has not, so far at least, adversely affected the relative competitiveness of manufacturing either in peripheral or in core countries.