Asperity distribution of the 1952 great Kamchatka earthquake and its relation to future earthquake potential in Kamchatka

The 1952 Kamchatka earthquake is among the largest earthquakes of this century, with an estimated magnitude of M-w = 9.0. We inverted tide gauge records from Japan, North America, the Aleutians, and Hawaii for the asperity distribution. The results show two areas of high slip. The average slip is over 3 m, giving a seismic moment estimate of 155 x 10(20) Nm, or M-w = 8.8. The 20th century seismicity of the 1952 rupture zone shows a strong correlation to the asperity distribution, which suggests that the large earthquakes (M > 7) are controlled by the locations of the asperities and that future large earthquakes will also recur in the asperity regions.