Policies addressing the tempo effect in low-fertility countries

被引:145
作者
Lutz, W [1 ]
Skirbekk, V [1 ]
机构
[1] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, World Populat Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
关键词
D O I
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00094.x
中图分类号
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号
摘要
The possible negative consequences of current low fertility levels are causing increasing concern, particularly in countries where the total fertility rate is below 1.5. Social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may make it difficult to return to higher levels once fertility has been very low for some time, creating a possible "low-fertility trap." Policies explicitly addressing the fertility-depressing effect of increases in the mean age at childbearing (the tempo effect) may be a way to raise period fertility to somewhat higher levels and help escape the "low-fertility trap" before it closes. Reforms in the school system may affect the timing of childbearing by lowering the age at completion of education. A more efficient school system, which provides the same qualifications with a younger school-leaving age, is potentially capable of increasing period fertility and hence exerting a rejuvenating effect on the age composition, even if the levels of cohort fertility remain unchanged. Such policies may also have a positive effect on completed cohort fertility.
引用
收藏
页码:699 / +
页数:24
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