Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model

被引：17

作者：

Shen, B. -W. ^{[1
,2
]}

DeMaria, M. ^{[3
]}

Li, J. -L. F. ^{[4
]}

Cheung, S. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] UMCP ESSIC, College Pk, MD USA

[2] NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD USA

[3] NOAA NESDIS, Ft Collins, CO USA

[4] CalTech JPL, Pasadena, CA USA

[5] NASA ARC, Moffett Field, CA USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2013年 / 40卷 / 18期

关键词：

Hurricane Sandy; genesis predictability; global mesoscale model; MJO; multiscale interactions; easterly wave; TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS; PREDICTABILITY; PACIFIC; FLOW;

D O I：

10.1002/grl.50934

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

引用

页码：4944 / 4950

页数：7

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