Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

被引：70

作者：

Gladstone, Rupert M. ^{[1
]}

Lee, Victoria ^{[1
]}

Rougier, Jonathan ^{[5
]}

Payne, Antony J. ^{[1
]}

Hellmer, Hartmut ^{[3
]}

Le Brocq, Anne ^{[2
]}

Shepherd, Andrew ^{[4
]}

Edwards, Tamsin L. ^{[1
]}

Gregory, Jonathan ^{[6
,7
]}

Cornford, Stephen L. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England

[2] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England

[3] Alfred Wegener Inst, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany

[4] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

[5] Univ Bristol, Dept Math, Bristol BS8 1TW, Avon, England

[6] Univ Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England

[7] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

来源：

EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS | 2012年 / 333卷

关键词：

West Antarctic ice sheet; Pine Island Glacier; calibrated prediction; marine ice sheet instability; ice sheet modelling; DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL; ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET; WEST ANTARCTICA; LASER DATA; SATELLITE; THWAITES; BENEATH; RADAR;

D O I：

10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：191 / 199

页数：9

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