The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics

A cellular automaton is specified to give a spatially detailed representation of the evolution of urban land-use patterns. Cell states represent land uses, and transition rules express the likelihood of a change from one state to another as a function both of existing land use in the 113-cell neighbourhood of the cell and of the inherent suitability of the cell for each possible use. The model is used to simulate the land-use pattern of Cincinnati, Ohio. The simulation results are realistic and sensitivity analysis shows that the predictions of the model are relatively accurate and reproducible, thus suggesting that cellular automata-based models may be useful in a planning context.