This paper presents a method that combines Weibull analysis and statistical algorithms to forecast failures, and the experimental results applied to electronic systems, The Weibull analysis is a classical method to forecast failures using risk analysis and the mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) parameter. Statistical pattern analysis can forecast failures based on performance information from the component. Performance can be monitored by analyzing test data collected during the system or component's operating life. Weibull analysis uses failure datum to estimate the MTTF Statistical pattern analysis uses test data to identify statistical patterns such as trend lines. The combined method outputs two possible dates of failures: one using MTTF and another using trend line extrapolation. The final probable date of failure and its uncertainty are calculated using an interference probability method similar to the stress-strength method. The interference probability distribution is calculated using the probability distributions of each forecast, which are assumed, for the sake of simplicity, to be normal. Forecast results are presented using actual test and repair data for electronic systems. Results demonstrate that the method can be used to forecast failures. However, accuracy of forecasts is strongly dependent on the knowledge of the operating time. A major conclusion output by this paper is the urgent need to capture operating information such as time and stress in order to forecast failures and develop efficient preventive maintenance and sustainment programs. If this is not a new statement, then it is at least a reinforcement of it. Processes currently being used in maintenance procedures are not appropriate to provide accurate operating time and operation stress data. Research efforts should focus on developing devices that can track operating information including cycles, time, performance, and stress levels, This paper focuses more on presenting experimental results than on explaining theory fundamentals, The theoretical fundamentals can be found in references mentioned in section 3 among many others.
