How well can we forecast high biomass algal bloom events in a eutrophic coastal sea?

被引：58

作者：

Allen, J. Icarus ^{[1
]}

Smyth, Timothy J. ^{[1
]}

Siddorn, John R. ^{[2
]}

Holt, Martin ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England

[2] Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

来源：

HARMFUL ALGAE | 2008年 / 8卷 / 01期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

Algal blooms; Model skill; North Sea; Ocean colour; Ocean forecast;

D O I：

10.1016/j.hal.2008.08.024

中图分类号：

Q17 [水生生物学];

学科分类号：

071004 ;

摘要：

High biomass algal bloom events are a characteristic of eutrophic coastal waters; these may result both in ecosystem degradation and economic loss. We present a skill evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem model of the NW European shelf for predicting bloom events based on a comparison with satellite chlorophyll estimates. By setting thresholds to define bloom events we use a binary classification system to generate maps showing the probability a model bloom prediction is correct. Model and satellite data limitations are discussed along with the application of this method to forecasting specific harmful algal species. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：70 / 76

页数：7

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