Probabilistic analysis and design of the industrial timber drying process

The distribution in the moisture content of dried planks is an important parameter for kiln operators. The evolution of variability in the moisture content of timber boards during a batch drying process is investigated. This random variability in moisture content arises from a distribution in plank initial moisture content and dispersion in plank drying rate. A simple deterministic model of timber drying is outlined. Theoretical probabilistic analysis is applied to this model to predict the mean and standard deviation in board moisture content as a function of time. The solution is assessed with representative industrial kiln drying data. The utility of the approach in suggesting strategies to promote uniformity in anal moisture content is outlined using some design studies. These strategies include sorting of the timber by moisturecontent and adjusting the drying rate and equilibrium Moisture content to reduce variability. It is also demonstrated that the probabilistic approach can yield a better estimation of kiln average moisture content.