Using physiological data to predict future career progression in 14-to 17-year-old Austrian soccer academy players

The crux of any soccer-specific talent identification programme is to determine early predictors of future playing success (Williams & Reilly, 2000). We compare physiological characteristics among 14- to 17-year-old soccer academy players in terms of subsequent career progression ('drafted' vs. 'non-drafted'). In a longitudinal design (2001-2010), players passed through 10 fitness tests at four age levels: 14 (n = 410); 15 (n = 504); 16 (n = 456); and 17 years (n = 272). MANOVAs showed statistically significant (P<0.05) superior performances for drafted players in all components ('speed', 'power and flexibility', 'coordination and endurance') and age categories. ANOVAs revealed significantly (P<0.013) better performances for drafted players in almost all tests, with the largest effect sizes for shuttle sprint (eta(2) = 0.07-0.09), 20 m sprint (eta(2) = 0.04-0.05) and medicine ball throw (eta(2) = 0.05-0.11). Follow up discriminant analyses confirmed that a combination of three variables correctly classified 62.7 to 66.2% of the players. Soccer-specific speed and power of upper limbs best discriminated future playing status, irrespective of age category. It is concluded that physiological measurements at adolescence can provide useful information in terms of predicting future career progression.