Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?

被引：77

作者：

Kehoe, Timothy J. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Ruhl, Kim J. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA

[2] Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN USA

[3] Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[4] Univ Texas Austin, Austin, TX 78712 USA

来源：

REVIEW OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS | 2008年 / 11卷 / 04期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Terms of trade; Gross domestic product; Total factor productivity; National income accounting;

D O I：

10.1016/j.red.2008.04.001

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

International trade is frequently thought of as a production technology in which the inputs are exports and the outputs are imports. Exports are transformed into imports at the rate of the price of exports relative to the price of imports: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way. a change in the terms of trade acts as a productivity shock. Or does it? In this paper, we show that this line of reasoning cannot work in standard models. Starting with a simple model and then generalizing, we show that changes in the terms of trade have no first-order effect on productivity when output is measured as chain-weighted real GDP. The terms of trade do affect real income and consumption in a country, and we show how measures of real income change with the terms of trade at business cycle frequencies and during financial crises. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：804 / 819

页数：16

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